"Japan’s demographic crisis means that its face and identity could be undergoing a dramatic shift; however, cultural and political barriers are shaping how the country is responding."
Dr. Scott Harrison
Connecting Histories, Shaping Futures
"Japan’s demographic crisis means that its face and identity could be undergoing a dramatic shift; however, cultural and political barriers are shaping how the country is responding."
Dr. Scott Harrison
Connecting Histories, Shaping Futures
In this article, Scott Harrison and Momo Sakudo combined forces to examine one of Japan’s most pressing issues: its demographic crisis, characterized by a declining birthrate and a rapidly aging and shrinking population. This crisis is leading to a significant labour shortage, prompting discussions on potential solutions. While policies have traditionally focused on mobilizing underutilized domestic groups and technological innovations, there's a growing debate on whether increased immigration could effectively address these demographic challenges.
In this article, Scott Harrison and Momo Sakudo combined forces to examine one of Japan’s most pressing issues: its demographic crisis, characterized by a declining birthrate and a rapidly aging and shrinking population. This crisis is leading to a significant labour shortage, prompting discussions on potential solutions. While policies have traditionally focused on mobilizing underutilized domestic groups and technological innovations, there's a growing debate on whether increased immigration could effectively address these demographic challenges.
Key Insights
Japan faces a severe demographic crisis, with its population projected to decline from 125.7 million in 2022 to 87 million by 2070, while its elderly population (over 64) is expected to reach 38.7% by the same year. This shrinking and aging population creates an anticipated labor shortage of 11 million workers by 2040, which would require approximately 647,000 working-age immigrants annually to offset. Despite this need, Japan's traditional identity as an ethnically homogeneous nation has led to piecemeal immigration policies rather than a comprehensive approach. The government has instead focused on utilizing underused domestic populations (women, youth, elderly) and technology solutions while slowly introducing limited paths for foreign workers.
Policy changes under former Prime Minister Kishida Fumio signal a gradual shift, including new visa systems for high-income earners, pathways for international students, and reforms to the controversial technical internship program. The article suggests that while immigration alone cannot solve Japan's demographic challenges, increased cooperation between national and subnational governments could create more effective integration policies as Japan's foreign resident population (currently only 2.4% of the total) continues to grow. As one of the first advanced economies facing severe population decline, Japan's approach provides an important case study for other nations facing similar demographic trends.
Key Insights
Japan faces a severe demographic crisis, with its population projected to decline from 125.7 million in 2022 to 87 million by 2070, while its elderly population (over 64) is expected to reach 38.7% by the same year. This shrinking and aging population creates an anticipated labor shortage of 11 million workers by 2040, which would require approximately 647,000 working-age immigrants annually to offset. Despite this need, Japan's traditional identity as an ethnically homogeneous nation has led to piecemeal immigration policies rather than a comprehensive approach. The government has instead focused on utilizing underused domestic populations (women, youth, elderly) and technology solutions while slowly introducing limited paths for foreign workers.
Policy changes under former Prime Minister Kishida Fumio signal a gradual shift, including new visa systems for high-income earners, pathways for international students, and reforms to the controversial technical internship program. The article suggests that while immigration alone cannot solve Japan's demographic challenges, increased cooperation between national and subnational governments could create more effective integration policies as Japan's foreign resident population (currently only 2.4% of the total) continues to grow. As one of the first advanced economies facing severe population decline, Japan's approach provides an important case study for other nations facing similar demographic trends.
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Our mutual interest in viewing Japan and its policies from the margins led us to focus on the changing demographics and what that might mean for Japan in the future. We analyzed related academic, government, and think tank reports and statistics and used foresight techniques to conceptualize potential future scenarios. In September 2023, we presented our findings at the Japan Studies Association of Canada annual conference in Saskatoon, Canada.
Scott Michael Harrison and Momo Sakudo. “Japan Needs More Labour. Is Immigration the Answer?” Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. August 25, 2023.
View Article
Our mutual interest in viewing Japan and its policies from the margins led us to focus on the changing demographics and what that might mean for Japan in the future. We analyzed related academic, government, and think tank reports and statistics and used foresight techniques to conceptualize potential future scenarios. In September 2023, we presented our findings at the Japan Studies Association of Canada annual conference in Saskatoon, Canada.
Scott Michael Harrison and Momo Sakudo. “Japan Needs More Labour. Is Immigration the Answer?” Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. August 25, 2023.
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Asia/Indo-Pacific
Japan-Canada Research and Policy Network
Exploring new horizons in trade, diplomacy, media and innovation
Indigenous Internationalism
Indigenous Reconciliation in Canada, Taiwan, and Japan
Cross-Pacific Indigenous connections, cultural revitalization, policy reform, and pathways to justice
Indigenous Internationalism
Indigenous Reconciliation in Canada, Taiwan, and Japan
Cross-Pacific Indigenous connections, cultural revitalization, policy reform, and pathways to justice
Latest projects
Asia/Indo-Pacific
Japan-Canada Research and Policy Network
Exploring new horizons in trade, diplomacy, media and innovation
Indigenous Internationalism
Indigenous Reconciliation in Canada, Taiwan, and Japan
Cross-Pacific Indigenous connections, cultural revitalization, policy reform, and pathways to justice
